November 24, 2004

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I've read things like this before, but what I don't understand is what could happen:

The chief eComist at Morgan Stanley is 90% certain that the US eComy is headed for disaster.
To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

Sustainable? Hardly.

Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.

Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the eComy.

Today the figure is 85 percent.

Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.

From Boing Boing

So if it isn't sustainable, what happens? If the rest of the world stops propping up the US 'eComy' does the whole thing collapse? Do the Americans suddenly change their spending habits and pay back the debt? Does Visa stop extending credit? Or go bust? I can see if they stop spending then companies that supply the goods must go under, and then jobs go etc, but how does the debt thing crash?

And ain't that a startling figure, 85% of the US eComy in debt. Wow.

Posted by Toni at November 24, 2004 08:12 AM
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