talula

You will have seen the front page Dominion Post in the weekend with
alarming predictions of global sea-level rise for the next hundred years,
based on comments I am supposed to have made during a presentation to the
Environment Committee of the Wellington Regional Council. For the record I
specifically told the the Dominion reporter, Colin Patterson that the
scientific consensus on sea-level rise as reported by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2001 assessment report
was 0.5 to 1m by the end of the 21st century. In subsequent phone
interviews I reiterated to Colin Patterson that it would be incorrect, and
irresponsible to suggest a sea-level rise of more than 1m in the next
hundred years. This was 2 weeks ago, and he indicated that 1m was not
newsworthy and that the article would not go ahead. However with the
recent storm surges affecting Hawkes Bay the Dom Post have clearly seen an
angle to link that coastal inundation with sea-level rise caused by
climate change. The reports of 5m sea-level rise in the next 100 years,
and 10m in 150 to 200 years attributed to me are dishonest reporting.

The 5 to 10 m sea-level rise scenarios were presented to WRC as a worse
case scenario involving total collapse of both West Antarctic and
Greenland ice sheets which would only happen under conditions of continued
greenhouse gas emissions and certainly were not expected in the next 100
years. It was stressed that sea-level rise of several meters would take a
number of centuries. The whole climate change issue is extremely topical,
and the press are looking to put alarmist comments up against skeptics.
Its irresponsible and not helpful for the public. In case you are asked
what is going on, below I provide the likely scenarios/consequences for
climate change in the next 100 years as reported by IPCC and the NZCCO
Policy for Regional Councils. You may

· 0.5 to 1 m global sea-level rise as a consequence of greenhouse gas
emissions and global warming (loss of ice mass and thermal expansion of
the ocean)
· 1.5-4.8 degrees C increase in temperature (2-3 degrees C likely for NZ).
If global averge temperatures increase by 2 to 3 degress general concesus
is that the Earth will face catastrophic climate chnage.
· doubling of 1990 atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels. Pre-industrial levels
were 280-ppm. CO2 is currently 380ppm (30% increase which is likely to
double).
· Increased influence of El-Nino climate patterns with increased rainfall
and more frequent flooding in the west of NZ and droughts in the
east?.warmer and wetter.

Recent observations are showing greater ice-mass loss from Greenland, West
Antarctica and low to mid-latitude glaciers than anticipated in 2001. The
Andean ice cap, glaciers on Mt Kenya and Kilimanjaro, in Alaska and the
European Alps have lost up to 50% of their area. Sea-level rise of 1m by
end of the century now seems quite likely and the above predictions will
be reassessed in the IPCC 2005 report.